Jake Sullivan states that the intelligence community would have warned President Trump that waving the possibility of regime change in Iran would be considered existential by Iranians, prompting a strong response.

“This claim is well-supported by expert analysis and reporting on intelligence assessments. Multiple foreign policy experts and think tanks, including the Atlantic Council and the Stimson Center, confirm that the Iranian regime views threats of regime change as an existential conflict for its survival. This perception leads to maximum resistance rather than capitulation. Reporting from The Jerusalem Post, citing sources familiar with intelligence reports, also indicates that President Trump was warned that attacks on Iran would trigger significant retaliation, which aligns with the core of Sullivan's assertion about the nature of intelligence advice. Context: The claim is made in the context of discussing the Trump administration's strategy towards Iran. Sullivan, a former National Security Advisor, is asserting that the likely consequences of threatening regime change are a well-understood principle in U.S. foreign policy and intelligence circles, and that such advice would have been standard.”